Anticipating the outcome of the Man City investigation

The verdict on Manchester City’s alleged financial rule violations is looming.

Could the team that has won six of the last ten Premier League titles really face relegation?

How this all began

In February 2023, football fans were shocked (or perhaps not so surprised) to hear that Man City was once again under investigation for breaching financial fair play rules.

It all started in 2018 when a German journalist published an article alleging that Man City’s reckless spending had led to financial fair play violations.

UEFA’s sanction

UEFA looked into this and found that Man City had indeed violated the “break-even rule”.

As such, UEFA banned the club from participating in the UEFA Champions League, and issued a hefty fine.

Man City appealed the decision to the Court of Artibration for Sport and the club successfully overturned the participation ban portion of the sanction.

CAS decision

Two key issues stood out in the CAS panel’s findings.

First, some of the charges were time-barred because the limitation period of five years had elapsed.

Second, the leaked emails, which UEFA’s case was primarily predicated on, were not sufficient evidence to prove Man City’s wrongdoings and UEFA was not able to submit any other evidence for that matter, at least not to the panel’s “comfortable satisfaction”.

Why the results could be different

In 2023, I anticipated that EPL’s investigation could lead to a different outcome because the the EPL rules are stipulated in a slightly different manner. For those of you who can read Korean, I explained this in more detail here.

First, the EPL rules do not have a statute of limitation clause.

Second, the EPL’s independent commission applies a lower standard of proof — the “balance of probabilities”.

I revisited those thoughts and I stand by my previous prediction.

I believe the EPL rules were drafted this way to ensure that the league retains an effective disciplinary authority over internal regulatory breaches by not putting any limitation period and adopting a lower standard of proof, thereby facilitating the enforcement of its rules and maintaining integrity within the league.

If the independent commission determines that the evidence indicates that it is more likely than not that Man City went beyond the rules during the period from 2009 to 2018, Man City could be found guility and face severe penalties, including fines, points deduction, and yes, even relegation.